Oscar Predictions

Update Post-Awards:

18/24 -- I consider that not bad.  Granted, it's only two more than last year's tally, but I feel better about this year...mainly because I picked the contentious Best Picture winner...and also because my sound picks were troublesome and I knew it.  I felt like Mad Max couldn't sweep everything, but I knew that it would, but somehow I just went with Revenant because I felt Revenant was gonna get a little more love...

I'm also happy because I got two of the three short categories correct which I consider a big coup.  

Overall, the ceremony was paced well despite running 37 minutes long.  I thought Rock's opening monologue was decent -- you knew he was going to hit on the OscarsSoWhite controversy and I thought his skewering of the industry was decent.  But then it went on too far.  Once the fantastic Tracy Morgan Danish Girl bit was done, everything else went downhill.  The Girl Scout cookie thing was a cheap ploy to capture the Ellen selfie or pizza delivery thing and it didn't work.  Neither did much else.  So, good monologue, but disappointing the remainder of the show.  (And let's remember that the controversy should include all non-White minorities...not just the one that was promoted so highly in the show.)

Overall, I'm pleased with most winners.  Stallone's loss was sad as I thought he gave a great performance in Creed, but it's always nice to have some surprises.  And speaking of surprises, how about Ex Machina for Best Visual Effects?  That one came out of nowhere and while I'm not quite sure it deserved the win over its competitors, I'm thrilled that the great film got recognition.  Now if only Brooklyn had received some award, it would've been a fantastic night awards-wise.  

Edited: Sun 12:43am

Predictions for Sunday's ceremony are below.  I did awful last year -- 16/24 -- and this year I fear I won't do much better seeing as how the two films that are nearly going to run the table are my least favorites of the bunch, so I'm sure I'm picking things wrong.

Best Picture (listed in order of my own personal ranking)

Room  (A)

Brooklyn  (A-)

The Martian  (B+)

Spotlight  (B+)

Bridge of Spies  (B-)

The Big Short  (B-)

The Revenant  (C+)

Mad Max: Fury Road (C- -- review forthcoming)

Will Win:  Spotlight (my "out on a limb" prediction -- I should probably be going with The Revenant)

Should Win: Room

Should've Been Nominated:  Steve Jobs

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson - Room

Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Adam McKay - The Big Short

George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant

Will Win: Inarritu

Should Win: Abrahamson

Should've Been Nominated: Alex Garland - Ex Machina

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston - Trumbo

Matt Damon - The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Will Win: Dicaprio

Should Win: Fassbender

Should've Been Nominated: Jacob Tremblay - Room

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett - Carol

Brie Larson - Room

Jennifer Lawrence - Joy

Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

Will Win: Larson

Should Win: Didn't see Joy/45 Years yet and I need a second viewing of Room/Brooklyn to really figure out if I like Larson or Ronan better because both were great

Should've Been Nominated: Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl (in the correct category)

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale - The Big Short

Tom Hardy - The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight

Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Will Win: Stallone

Should Win: Stallone

Should've Been Nominated: Weak year for this category

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara - Carol

Rachel McAdams - Spotlight

Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Will Win: Vikander

Should Win: Vikander was great, but she's not a supporting actress rather the film's lead; Winslet would probably get my vote had I a ballot.  Didn't see Hateful Eight

Should've Been Nominated: Elizabeth Banks - Love and Mercy

Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

Cinematography: The Revenant

Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Make-up and Hair: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Score: The Hateful Eight

Song: "'Til It Happens to You" - The Hunting Ground

Sound Editing: The Revenant

Sound Mixing: The Revenant

Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road

Animated Feature: Inside Out

Documentary: Amy

Foreign Film: Son of Saul

Animated Short: Bear Story

Documentary Short: Body Team 12

Live Action Short: Stutterer

2016 Academy Awards Predictions

Updated 1/14 - 8:50am
I'll be back Thursday morning to see how I fared.  An odd year as nothing has really taken the lead and run with it.  Also rather odd in that I feel that I'm way behind on Oscar-related films.

Best Picture

1. Spotlight

2. The Martian

3. The Big Short

4. The Revenant

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

6. Brooklyn

7. Carol

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

10. Straight Outta Compton

alt. Inside Out, Trumbo

I'm not quite sure of the algorithm as to how they choose the nominees, but I think it has to do with how many first place finishes there are in the rankings.  With this in mind, I feel like the Best Picture line-up could end at #6...or perhaps it's so wide open that we could have a ten-large field this year.
Update:  You can either count this as 8/8 or 7/8 -- Carol didn't get the nod, but slots 8 and 9 did.

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

2. Matt Damon - The Martian

3. Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

4. Bryan Cranston - Trumbo

5. Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

alt. Will Smith - Concussion
Update: 5/5 -- slots 4 and 5 are such a waste here...

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson - Room

2. Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

3. Cate Blanchett - Carol

4. Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

5. Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years

alt. Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
Update:  4/5 (thanks to Academy "cheating") -- I thought the Academy would be smart enough to realize that Vikander is a leading actress in The Danish Girl, but they voted her as Supporting.  Jennifer Lawrence sneaks in because of that.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies

2. Sylvester Stallone - Creed

3. Christian Bale - The Big Short

4. Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation

5. Jacob Tremblay - Room

alt. Mark Ruffalo, Michael Keaton - Spotlight; Paul Dano - Love and Mercy

(really one of the most wide-open categories this year...only 1 and 2 are locks above)
Update:  3/5 -- as I said, a wide open category with Ruffalo getting in along with Tom Hardy from Revenant who didn't make an appearance in any precursors.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Rooney Mara - Carol

2. Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

3. Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

4. Jane Fonda - Youth

5. Alicia Vikander - Ex Machina

alt.  Helen Mirren - Trumbo
Update:  3/5 -- With the Academy's cheating moving Vikander to supporting for The Danish Girl, I guess I'm 3/5 here, but since I chose Vikander anyway (albeit for a different role), maybe it still counts?  Ha!

Best Director

1. Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
2. Ridley Scott - The Martian
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant
4. George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Adam McKay - The Big Short
alt. Todd Haynes - Carol
Update: 4/5 - Shocked that Ridley Scott who almost seemed a given to win didn't make the cut, but the director's branch of the Academy has been known to shake things up in recent years.  In is Lenny Abrahamson for Room -- I really need to see that one.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Big Short
2. Carol
3. Steve Jobs
4. Brooklyn
5. The Martian
alt. Room
Update:  4/5 - For the second year in a row (last year it was Gone Girl), my favorite screenplay of the year in (thus far) in Steve Jobs gets shoved aside.  Room gets bumped up.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Trainwreck
alt. Ex Machina
Update: 3/5 - No Trainwreck (an out-there prediction, I know) or Hateful Eight (they love Tarantino, seemingly), but the alternate (and deserving) Ex Machina moves up and Straight Outta Compton joins the list

Best Animated Film
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. ??
Update:  3/5 - No Peanuts and the branch went with two unknown features which they often do, but it's always difficult to determine which independent features they'll go with.

Overall:  35/48 -- pretty bad and worse than last year.  (If you include my alternates, I raise that score by 4 and I'm still bitter about the category fraud placement of Vikander's Danish Girl performance in supporting.)   Oddly enough, I've seen a lot of movies I've liked this year, but I'm feeling very removed from this whole Oscar landscape this season.  Perhaps it's because the two of the three movies I've really liked -- Steve Jobs and Ex Machina -- haven't been embraced by the Academy as much as I would've liked.  Brooklyn making the cut is nice because its simplistic story certainly wasn't a given for the win, but with only three nominations (I think) for the film, the passion isn't there for this one either.

Oscar Predictions 2014

UPDATE POST-OSCARS

Horrible job this year -- 16/24.  Ugh.  Unfortunately, the worst Best Picture nominee took home the big award (in my opinion).  However, I will take solace in the fact that Whiplash took home three awards -- two of which were somewhat surprising (although not necessarily entirely unexpected...it was my second choice for Editing and Sound Mixing).  Neil Patrick Harris was disappointing.  The show was bland and all of his jokes (with the exception of the Benedict Cumberbatch/Ben Affleck/John Travolta bit) fell flat.  Just poorly written one-liners that didn't land.  Certainly "pleasant," but that doesn't cut it, in my opinion.

Other quick notes:

- Biggest surprise of the night was the win for Big Hero 6 as I thought How to Train Your Dragon was kind of a lock after Lego Movie was passed over.

- Nice win for Eddie Redmayne over the overrated Birdman's Michael Keaton.

- The three Selma standing o's -- so pandering it was disgusting.  (And I REALLY liked the film.)  And Terrence Howard being unable to make it through a teleprompter read because he got too emotional talking about the film?

- I can't believe that for the second time, the fantastic special effects work on The Planet of the Apes films was overlooked.  The work those fx artists are doing on this series is, quite frankly, mind-blowing.

- Poland finally lands a Best Foreign Film award!  Yay!

This blog will continue down its path of catching up on 2014 films with the RyMickey Awards arriving sometime in the summer.

While I'm not quite over the nearly complete dissing of Gone Girl, most of this year's nominees are actually a fairly deserving bunch.  I'm not quite as well-rounded this year as I'd like to be -- missing out on Foxcatcher and a few Best Actress pictures -- but what I did see I enjoyed for the most part.  Some films have aged well in my mind since I've seen them -- Whiplash -- and some have not -- The Grand Budapest Hotel -- but 2014 was overall a solid year for film (which I'm obviously still exploring and will continue to do until the summer's RyMickey Awards).

Listed below are my predictions for what will win along with some thoughts on certain categories about what should win and/or should've been nominated.  (Reviews can be found by clicking on any underlined films.)

Best Picture (listed in order of my personal ranking)

Whiplash  (A-)
The Imitation Game  (A-)
The Theory of Everything  (B+)
Selma  (B+)
Boyhood  (B)
The Grand Budapest Hotel  (B-)
American Sniper  (C+)
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)  (C+)

Will Win:  Birdman

Should Win: Whiplash

Should've Been Nominated: Gone Girl

Best Director

Alejandro G. Inarritu - Birdman

Richard Linklater - Boyhood

Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher

Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game

Will Win: Richard Linklater

Should Win: Richard Linklater

Should've Been Nominated: Damien Chazelle - Whiplash

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore - Still Alice

Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon - Wild

Will Win: Julianne Moore

Should Win: Felicity Jones

Should've Been Nominated:  What a blah year for women for the most part...

Best Actor

Steve Carell - Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper - American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton - Birdman

Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne

Should Win: Eddie Redmayne

Should've Been Nominated: Ralph Fiennes - The Grand Budapest Hotel; David Oyelowo - Selma; Jake Gyllenhaal - Enemy/Nightcrawler

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall - The Judge

Ethan Hawke - Boyhood

Edward Norton - Birdman

Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Will Win: J.K. Simmons

Should Win: J.K. Simmons

Should've Been Nominated: Chris Pine - Into the Woods; Henry G. Sanders - Selma

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

Laura Dern - Wild

Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game

Emma Stone - Birdman

Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

Will Win: Patricia Arquette

Should Win:  Blah...

Should've Been Nominated: Agata Kulesza - Ida; Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer

Writing - Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game

Writing - Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Cinematography: Birdman

Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Documentary Feature: CitizenFour

Documentary Short Subject: Joanna

Film Editing: Boyhood

Foreign Language Film: Ida

Makeup and Hairstyling: Grand Budapest Hotel

Music - Original Score:  Theory of Everything

Music - Original Song: "Glory" from Selma

Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Short Film - Animated: The Dam Keeper

Short Film - Live Action: The Phone Call

Sound Editing: American Sniper

Sound Mixing: American Sniper

Visual Effects: Interstellar

Other Nominees

Begin Again

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

The Lego Movie

Maleficent

2015 Academy Award Predictions

UPDATE IN BOLD -- I didn't do too bad...

I'll be back Thursday morning to see how I fared, but here are some predictions on who will be Oscar nominees come tomorrow morning.  Predictions are listed in the order I feel it will be least likely to happen...

Best Picture

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. Imitation Game

4. Grand Budapest Hotel

5. Selma

6. The Theory of Everything

7. Whiplash

8. American Sniper

9. Nightcrawler

I think there will only be nine nominees, but should there be a tenth (which I'm hoping there will be), I'm going with Gone Girl.
UPDATE:  8/8 -- Look at that...eight for eight...Sure, I thought Nightcrawler would get the nomination, but there just wasn't the love for that one with Gyllenhaal missing a nod as well.

Best Director

1. Richard Linklater - Boyhood

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman

3. Wes Anderson - Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Clint Eastwood - American Sniper

5. Morten Tyldum - Imitation Game

alt. Ava DuVernay - Selma

Longshot (wishful thinking): David Fincher - Gone Girl / Damian Chazelle - Whiplash
UPDATE - 4/5 -- I don't feel the least bit bad for Clint Eastwood not making the list -- although it's surprising given the love for American Sniper overall this morning.  Instead, Bennett Miller makes the cut for Foxcatcher, yet Foxcatcher can't crack into the Best Picture list?  Weird...and the first time that's happened since the Academy expanded its main category past five nominees.

Best Actor

1. Michael Keaton - Birdman 

2. Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

3. Benedict Cumberbatch - Imitation Game

4. Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler

5. David Oyelowo - Selma

alt. Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Longshot (wishful thinking): Ralph Fiennes, Grand Budapest Hotel
UPDATE:  3/5 -- I thought the love for Foxcatcher was waning, but it did well (still very odd it missed out on the big prize).  American Sniper was coming on strong, but I just thought Selma had something going for it (it finished weak with only two nominations) and there was this tremendous buzz surrounding Gyllenhaal.

Best Actress

1. Julianne Moore - Still Alice

2. Reese Witherspoon - Wild

3. Felicity Jones - Theory of Everything

4. Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl

5. Jennifer Aniston - Cake

alt. Amy Adams - Big Eyes
UPDATE: 4/5 -- I was never on the Jennifer Aniston bandwagon this season, but many were placing her as a lock. However, Marion Cotillard's nomination comes out of nowhere despite being a critic's favorite.  I'm happy to see Rosamund Pike here as Gone Girl's sole nomination -- a film that deserved MUCH better today.

Best Supporting Actor

1. J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

2. Edward Norton - Birdman

3. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

4. Ethan Hawke - Boyhood

5. Robert Duvall - The Judge
UPDATE:  5/5

Best Supporting Actress

1. Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

2. Emma Stone - Birdman

3. Keira Knighley - Imitation Game

4. Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

5. Rene Russo - Nightcrawler

alt. Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
UPDATE:  4/5 -- The Nightcrawler love didn't span far, so Rene Russo (who was a longshot anyway) didn't make the cut, instead being replaced by Laura Dern whose role in Wild (a review of which is forthcoming) isn't all that impressive.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Gone Girl

2. Theory of Everything

3. Imitation Game

4. Whiplash

5. Wild
UPDATE: Shocked, I tell you, that Gone Girl's screenplay didn't make the cut (look, I had it in the #1 slot).  To me, that was the element of the film that was talked about the most upon its release.  No Wild either, with those two screenplays being replaced with American Sniper and Inherent Vice (!!)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Nightcrawler

5. Foxcatcher
UPDATE: 5/5

Best Animated Movie

1. The Lego Movie

2. How to Train Your Dragon 2

3. Big Hero 6

4. The Boxtrolls

5. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
UPDATE: Huge shock that The LEGO Movie didn't make the cut (don't get me wrong, I'm pleased).  However, a big surprise that two little known animated flicks -- Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya -- make entries.  Another shock -- I haven't seen a single one of the nominees -- that's got to be a first for me in this category.

Oscar Predictions

Last year, I was 19 for 24.  I can't tell if this year is tougher or not or I'm just hoping for a few surprises...

UPDATE:  Once again, 19 for 24.  I thought for sure Captain Phillips would take editing considering the various guilds voted that direction, but the Academy pretty much voted for Gravity for everything except the one where it really counted -- Best Picture.  

12 Years a Slave is a very good film.  Granted, it's my fourth favorite of the nominees for Best Picture, but it's a very respectable piece of filmmaking that I think upon second viewing will grow in my mind.  

I'd have loved to have seen Leonardo DiCaprio win and, of course, I'd love for Gravity (a marvelous piece of filmmaking) to have taken the big prize, but I knew that wasn't going to happen.  

The one thing I'll take away from tonight -- I couldn't be happier that American Hustle walked away empty-handed.  Thrilled that the overrated David O. Russell film was seen for the overrated flick that it truly was.

Now you can all focus on the awards that really count -- The RyMickey Awards coming in June!

Best Picture -- CORRECT
Will Win:  12 Years a Slave
Should Win:  Gravity

Best Director -- CORRECT
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Best Actor -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Leonardo Dicaprio

Best Actress -- CORRECT
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor -- CORRECT
Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win:  Michael Fassbender (although I really have no dog in this weak category)

Best Supporting Actress -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Lupita Nyong'o
Should Win:  Lupita Nyong'o

Best Adapted Screenplay -- CORRECT
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay -- WRONG (Winner:  HER)
Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: Nebraska

Best Cinematography -- CORRECT
Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Nebraska

Best Costume Design -- WRONG (Winner:  The Great Gatsby)
Will Win:  American Hustle
Should Win: The Great Gatsby

Best Film Editing -- WRONG (Winner:  Gravity)
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity

Best Make-up and Hairstyling -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win:  American Hustle (wait...it's not nominated?)

Best Original Score -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Gravity

Best Original Song -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Let It Go
Should Win:  Blah...

Best Production Design -- CORRECT
Will Win:  The Great Gatsby
Should Win:  (tie) Her and The Great Gatsby

Best Sound Editing - Gravity -- CORRECT
Best Sound Mixing - Gravity -- CORRECT
Best Visual Effects - Gravity -- CORRECT

Best Animated Feature -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Frozen
Should Win: Monsters University (which isn't even nominated)

Best Documentary Feature - 20 Feet from Stardom -- CORRECT
Best Foreign Language Film - The Great Beauty -- CORRECT
Best Animated Short - Get a Horse -- WRONG (Monsieur Hublot)
Best Live Action Short - Avant Que de Tout Perdre -- WRONG (Helium)
Best Documentary Short - The Lady in Number 6 -- CORRECT

Oscar Stuff

POST OSCARS UPDATE -- I'm actually pretty happy with my 19/24 predictions...although it didn't win me the Oscar pool at work (but only because I made a change on that ballot from below...aargh!!!).   Certainly the best I've done since I've started this blog.  I took some big risks and only one paid off (Ang Lee in Direction).  That said, in terms of the actual winners, I think most of them are deserving even if I didn't choose them as my "Should Win" winners.

Seth MacFarlane was okay as host.  Certainly better than the stodgy Billy Crystal, but there were a bit too many jokes that fell flat.  And while I appreciate the thought process to make this an "entertainment show," there were a bit too many musical moments.

Best Picture -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Argo
Should Win: Argo

Best Director -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Ang Lee
Should Win: Steven Spielberg

Best Actor -- CORRECT
Will Win:  Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: DDL

Best Actress -- WRONG (Jennifer Lawrence)
Will Win:  Emmanuelle Riva
Should Win:  Naomi Watts

Best Supporting Actress -- CORRECT
Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Should Win:  Anne Hathaway

Best Supporting Actor -- WRONG (Christoph Waltz)
Will Win:  Robert De Niro
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Adapted Screenplay -- CORECT
Will Win:  Argo
Should Win:  Lincoln

Best Original Screenplay -- CORRECT
Will Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Flight

Best Cinematography -- CORRECT
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win:  Anna Karenina or Lincoln or Skyfall

Best Costume Design -- CORRECT
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Mirror Mirror (or Anna Karenina)

Best Editing -- CORRECT
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Argo

Best Makeup and Hairstyling -- CORRECT
Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Les Miserables

Best Original Score -- CORRECT
Will Win: Life ofPi
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Original Song -- CORRECT
Will Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall

Best Production Design -- WRONG (Lincoln)
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Sound Editing -- WRONG (Tie -- Skyfall/Zero Dark Thirty)
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing -- CORRECT
Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Skyfall

Best Visual Effects -- CORRECT
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Life of Pi

Best Animated Film -- CORRECT
Will Win: Brave
Should Win: Paranorman

Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man -- CORRECT
Best Documentary Short:  Mondays at Racine -- WRONG (Innocente)
Best Animated Short:  Paperman -- CORRECT
Best Live Action Short:  Curfew -- CORRECT
Best Foreign Language Film:  Amour -- CORRECT

My Reviews of Oscar-Nominated Films

Argo -- A

Lincoln -- A-

Amour -- B

Django Unchained -- B

Les Miserables -- B-

Zero Dark Thirty -- B-

Silver Linings Playbook -- C+

Life of Pi -- C+

Beasts of the Southern Wild -- C

The Impossible -- A

The Sessions -- A

Skyfall -- A-

Flight -- A-

Paranorman -- B+

Wreck-It Ralph -- B+

Brave -- B

Prometheus -- B

The Master -- B

Moonrise Kingdom -- B-

Frankenweenie -- B-

Mirror Mirror -- B-

Snow White and the Huntsman -- B-

The Avengers -- C+

Ted -- C+

The Pirates! Band of Misfits -- C+

Hitchcock -- C

Anna Karenina -- C

Note:  The Hobbit (nominated for Best Make-Up/Hairstyling and Best Visual Effects) and Chasing Ice (a documentary nominated for Best Song) are the only films nominated outside of the shorts/documentary/foreign categories that I did not see.

2013 Academy Awards Predictions

Oscar nominations are due Thursday morning and here's a few predictions.  We'll see how I fare come 9am on Thursday.  All categories have the nominees listed from most likely to least likely to be nominated.  I'll be back for "analysis" after the announcement.

Best Picture

1. Argo

2. Lincoln

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Les Miserables

5. Life of Pi

6. Silver Linings Playbook

7. Django Unchained

There could be as few as five or as many as ten nominees.  I'm going to go with seven, with slots 8-10 being taken up by the movies below.

8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Amour
10. Moonrise Kingdom
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS:  9/9 -- Essentially I was right on, however, I only predicted seven nominees as opposed to nine.  I thought this was maybe going to be a difficult race to predict, but as the Best Director nominees will show, I'm thinking this may be Lincoln's all the way now.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"
Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
alt: Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- I should've guessed that The Sessions was fading, but I liked it so darn much that I couldn't keep John Hawkes off my list.   


Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"
Emanuelle Riva - "Amour"
alt: Quvenzhané Wallis - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Longshot: Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- Once again, my alternate makes it in with the overrated performance of Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild instead of Marion Cotillard.  Before I went to bed last night, I thought I was asking for trouble with two foreign language nominees in the same category, but I stuck with it thinking the Academy wouldn't be swayed by "cute" and instead go for substance.  Then again, I'm one of the few "critics" who didn't like Beasts.

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained"
alt: Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"
Long Shots: Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"; Matthew McConaughey - "Magic Mike"
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- Leo was my "no guts/no glory" pick as his only precursor award was a Golden Globe nomination and we all know they love naming the biggest stars they can name.  Leo's costar Christoph Waltz takes the last slot instead.

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"
Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
alt: Amy Adams - "The Master"
Long Shot: Ann Dowd - "Compliance"
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS:  3/5 -- The top three were givens and the bottom two were complete toss-ups.  While I haven't seen The Paperboy, I'm thrilled Maggie Smith didn't make it in as I thought her role was completely one-note.  Amy Adams was always the closest to making it in from the outside, but Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook comes out of nowhere with no precursor nominations anywhere (I think) to take the slot.  There's usually always one of them in the acting categories, but I just didn't think it was going to be her for what isn't a very deep role in the slightest.

Best Director
Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"
Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Ben Affleck - "Argo"
Ang Lee - "Life of Pi"
Michael Haneke - "Amour"
alt: Tom Hooper - "Les Miserables"
Long Shots: David O. Russell - "Silver Linings Playbook"; Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS:  3/5 -- Holy crap.  What a shocking category.  Spielberg was a lock, but I don't think there was a single person out there who didn't think Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck weren't going to get nominated for Zero Dark Thirty and Argo respectively.  I can't speak for Zero Dark Thirty yet, but I think Argo is one of the best directed films of the year, so Affleck's diss here shocking.  What I thought were wild cards in Ang Lee and Michael Haneke are in along with David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook and an out-of-nowhere Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Quite honestly, I'm not quite sure what the director's branch was smoking.  To nominate those two over the likes of Affleck (and presumably Bigelow) is kind of a travesty.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
alt: Perks of Being a Wallflower
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 5/5

Best Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Amour
Long Shots: Looper, Flight
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- I thought there might be a tiny bit of more love for The Master (they did give it three acting nominations), but I'm thrilled that Flight made it into the final cut.

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
The Painting
alt: Rise of the Guardians
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- The Painting was my "out of left field" prediction for this category and The Pirates Band of Misfits admittedly wasn't anywhere on my radar.  While I didn't love it, kudos for it getting in.  I'm just more than thrilled that Paranorman made the final cut.

OTHER NOTES:

- I'm really happy that Paperman got a nomination for Best Animated Short since it was absolutely fantastic.  I certainly haven't seen all the others (although I have seen its fellow nominee Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'), but this has got to have a good chance of winning.
- Production Design nominees are all incredibly strong it seems.  I admit to not seeing all the nominees yet (and I won't see The Hobbit), but Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, and Lincoln form a great category.
- Similarly, Best Costume Design is quite strong as well -- Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, Lincoln, and the two Snow White movies Mirror Mirror and Snow White and the Huntsman.  
- Nice to see five Best Song nominees again since that category has been heinous over the past few years with last year's two nominee embarrassment.  I'm not sure the nominees are the right ones, but at least here's hoping we'll get to hear Scarlett Johansson and the eventual winner Adele perform at the Oscars.
- I just keep going back to the fact that Ben Affleck was robbed for Best Director.  Just shocking.

Oscar Predictions

UPDATE -- I did pretty alright -- 17/24 -- same as last year.  At least I'm consistent, right?  The show was alright.  Billy Crystal was a little stodgy, I thought.  It felt a tiny bit dated, but nicely reverent to cinema.  A few surprises -- some good (Hugo for Cinematography), some bad (Girl with a Dragon Tattoo for editing, The Artist for Costumes), and some indifferent (Meryl for Best Actress who was very, very good in Iron Lady, but I kinda wanted Viola Davis to take it).  A couple of nice moments -- Emma Stone and Ben Stiller had the best "host banter" and the Best in Show folks' take on The Wizard of Oz was a hoot -- and just like that the "year in cinema" has come to an end.

Here are my Oscar predictions for a year that contains many movies I like (surprisingly) in the Top Nine contenders for Best Picture.  We'll see how abysmal I do when I tally up the results Sunday around 11:30pm...

Best Picture -  CORRECT
Will Win:  The Artist
Should Win: Hugo

Best Director - CORRECT
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Should Win: Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Best Actor - CORRECT
Will Win: Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Should Win: George Clooney - The Descendants

Best Actress - WRONG (Meryl Streep)
Will Win: Viola Davis - The Help
Should Win: Viola Davis

Best Supporting Actor - CORRECT
Will Win: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Should Win: Christopher Plummer

Best Supporting Actress - CORRECT
Will Win: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Should Win: Jessica Chastain - The Help

Best Adapted Screenplay - CORRECT
Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Hugo

Best Original Screenplay - CORRECT
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Should Win: Bridesmaids

Best Art Direction - CORRECT
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo

Best Cinematography - WRONG (Hugo)
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Tree of Life

Best Costume Design - Jane Eyre - WRONG (The Artist -- almost went w/ this, too)
Best Film Editing - The Artist - WRONG (Girl w/ the Dragon Tattoo)
Best Make-up - The Iron Lady - CORRECT
Original Score - The Artist - CORRECT
Original Song - "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets - CORRECT
Best Sound Editing - Hugo - CORRECT
Best Sound Mixing - Hugo - CORRECT
Best Visual Effects - Rise of the Planet of the Apes - WRONG (Hugo)
Best Foreign Language Film - A Separation - CORRECT
Best Animated Film - Rango - CORRECT
Best Documentary Feature - Undefeated - CORRECT
Best Documentary Short - The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom - WRONG
Best Short Film Animated - The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore - CORRECT
Best Short Film Live Action - Tuba Atlantic - WRONG

2012 Academy Award Predicitons

Bold Font Updated Oscar Morning -- 9am


Here's a quick run-down of some major Academy Awards categories to be announced tomorrow morning at 8:30am.  Going into this Oscar season, I've actually seen quite a bit more than I usually have seen at this point.  I've still got some possible awards contenders to see -- War Horse, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Albert Nobbs, to name a few -- but I'm not sure any of these will see a huge amount of traction in the nominations tomorrow.  Anyway, here's my predictions in descending order from most probable/locks to less probable

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

The Help

Midnight in Paris

Yes, there could be anywhere from five to ten nominees this year, but I can't help but think in this rather lukewarm year for movies that many of the other flicks just outside the top five -- War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball -- may not have many #1 votes coming their way from Academy members which significantly decreases their chances of a nomination (the voting process is much too confusing for me to really understand though).  If something else gets in the mix, I'd have to think it very well could be something like Drive or Tree of Life that has a small, but loyal and rabid following.  The top four flicks about seem definite with Midnight in Paris a toss-up.  I'm not quite sure how to to appropriately predict the awards, but should there be more than five nominees, I see it coming in this order:  6.  Dragon Tattoo  7. The Tree of Life  8. Moneyball  9. War Horse  10.  Drive
Analysis:  So what do I know.  Like I said, I don't quite understand the preferential ballot treatment.  In the end, there were nine nominees and 8 of my first 9 were nominated with the surprise Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close getting the ninth spot.  So, I'm giving myself 8/9.

Best Director 

Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Alexander Payne - The Descendants

Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris

Terrence Malick - Tree of Life

alternate: David Fincher - Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I think the top four are locks with the fifth spot up for grabs.  I guess Spielberg could possibly be in the running, but War Horse has shown up in so few precursor awards that I think its allure has waned.
Analysis:  5/5 -- I went out on a limb with Malick and was apparently rewarded with that guess.

Best Actor

George Clooney - The Descendants

Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Jean Dujardin - The Artist

Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar

Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

alternate: Michael Shannon - Take Shelter

Only the top three are locks.  The remaining two spots will be filled by either DiCaprio, Oldman, Shannon, or Michael Fassbender in Shame, all four of whom have racked up nominations elsewhere this season.
Analysis:  4/5 - Despite garnering a Screen Actors Guild nomination, I didn't see Demian Bichir getting in the mix for the little seen A Better Life.  DiCaprio didn't make the cut for the disappointing J. Edgar. 

Best Actress

Viola Davis - The Help

Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs

Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin

alternate: Charlize Theron - Young Adult

In a perfect world, Theron would be nominated and win (although I haven't seen Swinton or Close's work yet), but I don't really see her name being called tomorrow morning.  Rooney Mara is also in the running for Dragon Tattoo.  This may be the most locked-up category to be announced tomorrow.
Analysis:  4/5 -- I'm a fan of Tilda Swinton's work, and although I haven't seen We Need to Talk About Kevin yet, I'm looking forward to it.  However, the film is a small release and Rooney Mara took that up-for-grabs fifth spot.

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks - Drive

Jonah Hill - Moneyball

Ben Kingsley - Hugo

alternate: Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life

I'm calling for a Ben Kingsley surprise nomination tomorrow morning.  If the Academy likes Hugo, I think Kingsley's a great choice despite not having turned up in any precursor awards.  This category is the most interesting tomorrow as I think only Plummer and Branagh are locks.  Patton Oswalt also garnered some buzz for Young Adult as did Nick Nolte for Warrior, but those films didn't fare too well with the public so I'm not sure where they stand with the Academy.
Analysis:  3/5 -- My worst category, but also, like I said, one of the most up-in-the-air ones.  The Academy didn't care for (the overrated) Drive so Albert Brooks got sidelined despite having a lot of buzz earlier in the season.  My Ben Kingsley hope didn't come through either, with Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Nick Nolte for Warrior joining Plummer, Branagh, and Hill.

Best Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer - The Help

Berenice Bejo - The Artist

Jessica Chastain - The Help

Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids

Shaileen Woodley - The Descendants

alternate: Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

Top three are locks, but McCarthy and Woodley are vulnerable, but only to McTeer as I don't really see any other actresses being buzzed about for this category this year.
Analysis:  4/5 -- Woodley's buzz for The Descendants had been fading and McTeer had been taking her place in a lot of recent awards, so I probably should've went that route, but figured the Academy might get won over by nominating a "kid."

Original Screenplay

Midnight in Paris

The Artist

Bridesmaids

A Separation

Young Adult

alternate: 50/50
Anaylsis:  4/5 -- Margin Call makes the cut rather than Young Adult (which I put on there for my own personal benefit).  I did call the surprise foreign nom for A Separation, however.

Adapted Screeplay

Moneyball

The Descendants

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Help

alternate: The Ides of March
Anaylsis:  3/5 -- My other worst category of the day, although my alternate Ides of March made it in replacing The Help and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy replacing Tattoo.

Overall, I wasn't awful...35/44...still not great...We'll see as the season moves on, but I've got a lack of passion for any of these movies, so it should end up being a rather boring month 'til the Oscars.

Oscar Predictions

UPDATE:  Sunday, February 27, 11:50pm


I'm pretty average at prognosticating.  A so-so 17 out of 24.  Foolish me for thinking Melissa Leo who won every single award leading up to tonight would've lost out to Steinfeld (that was just wishful thinking).


The awards show itself (with the exception of the Delaware shoutout from one of the night's most entertaining speeches from Short Film winner Luke Matheny) was dry and needed a punch of humor.  Anne Hathaway was fine and gracious, but Franco didn't want to be there and it was simply annoying to watch his apathetic vibe.  Bring Hathaway back to co-host with someone like Billy Crystal or Hugh Jackman and inject the night with more laughs.


Overall, I can't say I'm disappointed.  The King's Speech is my 2nd favorite pic of the Top Ten, so I can't say I'm upset with the outcome.

Well...I definitely didn't see the 200-plus movies I saw last year by Oscar time, but I saw close to 100.  Unfortunately, I missed out on a few nominated flicks, but I managed to see the major ones.

The season started out with The Social Network being the flick to beat, but the tide has shifted to The King's Speech and it's entirely possible that film could sweep nearly everything.  That said, there's a few races that are genuinely up for grabs (Best Director, Best Supporting Actress...and I think Best Actress is closer than people think it is)...or maybe I'm just hoping for a few surprises from Sunday night's awards.

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Will Win:  The King's Speech
Should Win:  127 Hours
Should Have Been Nominated:  Blue Valentine


Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The Kings Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Will Win:  David Fincher, The Social Network (I'm probably out on a limb on this one as it's probably gonna go to Hooper.)
Should Win:  Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Should Have Been Nominated:  Matt Reeves, Let Me In

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Will Win:  Colin Firth
Should Win:  Colin Firth  (Note: I did not see Biutiful.  Also, James Franco was my pick for nearly the whole season, but I just saw King's Speech and Firth is pretty fantastic.)
Should Have Been Nominated:  Joaquin Phoenix, I'm Still Here and Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine


Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Will Win:  Natalie Portman (I was actually going for the Bening upset until Portman beat Bening tonight at the Independent Spirit Awards...if Bening wins, I'll kick myself for changing at the last minute.)
Should Win: Michelle Williams (Note: I did not see Rabbit Hole even though I really wanted to)
Should Have Been Nominated:  No one...a weak year for actresses across the board for me


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale (although it's really a near toss-up with Geoffrey Rush and I'd be quite pleased if he took the trophy)
Should Have Been Nominated:  I'm pretty happy with all of the above


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Will Win:  Hailee Steinfeld (in an upset over Melissa Leo)
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld (Note: Despite being my number one movie in my Netflix queue for about a month now, I've been unable to see Weaver in Animal Kingdom)
Should Have Been Nominated:  Once again, a weak year for actresses as you'll see when I list my awards soon, so I'm okay with the above


(For the following, the WILL WINs are in BOLD CAPS and the Should Wins are in italics)


Best Original Screenplay:  
Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Have Been Nominated:  Blue Valentine


Best Adapted Screenplay:  
127 Hours, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Should Have Been Nominated:  Let Me In


Best Editing:  
Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, THE SOCIAL NETWORK


Best Cinematography:  Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, TRUE GRIT
Should Have Been Nominated:  Shutter Island


Best Art Direction:  
Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, Inception, THE KING'S SPEECH, True Grit
Should Have Been Nominated:  The Ghost Writer


Best Costume Design: ALICE IN WONDERLAND, I Am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, True Grit


Best Original Score:  127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated:  Tron: Legacy


Best Visual Effects:  Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Hereafter, INCEPTION, Iron Man 2
Should Have Been Nominated:  Scott Pilgrim vs. The World


The remainder are simply predicted winners:


Best Original Song: We Belong Together from Toy Story 3
Best Animated Feature:  Toy Story 3  (Tangled should've been nominated)

Best Sound Mixing:  Inception

Best Sound Editing:  Inception

Best Foreign Film:  In a Better World (Denmark)
Best Documentary Feature:  Inside Job
Best Make-Up:  The Wolfman
Best Live Action Short:  The Crush
Best Animated Short:  The Gruffalo
Best Documentary Short:  Strangers No More

Academy Awards Predictions

So, the big day's on Sunday. I've seen everything nominated in the major categories except The Last Station, but, from what I've heard, I'm not missing a whole lot. I definitely feel like I have the right to speak my mind about these categories since I've seen so much this past year.

My thoughts on who should and who will win (based on the nominations, not necessarily my "best" of the year) in some of the major categories are below. Ideally, I wanted to get all my "awards" up before Sunday, but I'm not sure that'll happen. Before the end of next week for sure.

Best Picture
Avatar

The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire

A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Analysis: It's either The Hurt Locker or Avatar and it really is a toss-up to me as to who's gonna take the big prize. I keep seeing Cameron begging to win this thing and it's really turning me off, so I'm choosing the The Hurt Locker for the win.

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Should Win: A Serious Man

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Analysis: This is Bigelow's to lose. The fact that she's a woman, perhaps unfairly, plays into her favor since this would be the first time a female would have won this award. All that aside, she crafted one hell of a war movie.

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Should Win: Kathyrn Bigelow

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Analysis: As much as I don't want to jump on the Bridges bandwagon (especially for such an average film), he is darn good in Crazy Heart, completely embodying the character and raising the film to a higher level. With the exception of Freeman, this is probably the best category of the whole show. Clooney, Firth, and Renner were great.

Will Win: Jeff Bridges

Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Analysis: I'll never understand the Sandra Bullock sweep for this role. I don't even see it as that far "out of the box" for her. And this is coming from someone who's a big Bullock fan. I enjoy her movies. I enjoyed her in The Blind Side. Oscar-worthy? Not so sure. For the longest time, I was saying that my vote would go to Streep, but in the past two to three weeks, I've shifted to rooting for Gabby Sidibe -- raw, powerful, and touching.
Will Win: Sandra Bullock

Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Analysis: I stand by the fact that Christoph Waltz is in the wrong category here, but the demotion to Supporting Actor guarantees him the prize in what is probably the weakest field this year. Matt Damon? Stanley Tucci? Ugh.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Should Win: Woody Harrelson

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Analysis: No need to discuss. Mo'Nique gives perhaps the best performance I saw last year.

Will Win: Mo'Nique

Should Win: Mo'Nique

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds

The Messenger

A Serious Man
Up
Analysis: It takes guts to do what the Coen Brothers do at times. Their quirky flick won me over, but despite the Best Picture nod it received, there's not a whole lot of widespread love for A Serious Man. This one's a tough category to call, but it's down to The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. If Basterds wins this early on in the night, it could mean the end of The Hurt Locker's Best Picture chances (paving the way for an Avatar win).

Will Win: Inglourious Basterds (I realize that choosing IB to win here and THL to win Best Pic are contradictory to what I said above, but so be it.)

Should Win: A Serious Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
Analysis: Honestly, a fairly weak category, but an easy one to predict. This will be Up in the Air's only win of the night.

Will Win: Up in the Air

Should Win: Up in the Air

Best Cinematography
Avatar

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

The White Ribbon

Analysis: Full disclosure - haven't seen The White Ribbon. I was quite a fan of Potter's cinematography when it was released, but there's been better stuff since then. All that being said, with my favorites not being in the line-up, I'm picking Avatar.

Will Win: Avatar

Should Win: Avatar or The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects
Avatar

District 9

Star Trek

Analysis: Do we even have to discuss this?

Will Win: Avatar

Should Win: Avatar

Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of the Kells
Up
Analysis: If you don't know where my allegiance lies, you're either new to the blog (so, welcome) or you've been living under a rock.

Will Win: Up

Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Quick Academy Awards Predictions

UPDATED - 2/2/10 @ 9am
Quick run-down of the way I think the Academy's gonna go tomorrow morning in the top categories...Not my picks (that'll come later in the month)...simply prognostications...

Best Picture
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Up
Up in the Air
Alternates: A Serious Man, Star Trek, Fantastic Mr. Fox
My Thoughts: It was a toss-up for me as to whether District 9, (500) Days, or A Serious Man would grab what I'd consider to be the last two spots, but unfortunately there hasn't been any buzz for the wonderful Coen brothers film.
RESULTS: 8/10 - Blind Side and A Serious Man in, (500) Days and Invictus (yeah!) out. A big (undeserved) surprise as The Blind Side is a good film, but not anything more than a really great tv movie. This definitely shows that the Academy likes the flick, though, and is a boost for Bullock in the Bullock-Streep smackdown that's going to occur over the next month.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Alternate: Michael Haneke (The White Ribbon)
My Thoughts: These have been the top five contenders at nearly every awards show this year. If there's any type of shake-up, I think Lee Daniels is out, but I'm not quite sure if anyone's seen The White Ribbon (I know I haven't).
RESULTS: 5/5

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Alternates: Viggo Mortensen (The Road), Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
My Thoughts: It's a shame that one of the best performances of the year -- that of Mr. Stuhlbarg -- has not garnered any respect this awards season.
RESULTS: 5/5

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
My Thoughts: I would be thrilled if Tilda Swinton swooped in for the little seen Julia, but the film has not been on the radar all season despite Swinton being nominated for a few meaningless online rewards.
RESULTS: 5/5

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alternates: Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), Alfred Molina (An Education)
My Thoughts: The most up in the air category. Harrelson and Waltz are the only two set in stone to me. The awards circuit has been all over the place here. Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker is even a possibility here.
RESULTS: 5/5 - I almost took Tucci off and replaced him with Molina, thinking Tucci's vote would be split between Julia & Julia and The Lovely Bones...

Best Supporting Actress
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Alternates: Samantha Morton (The Messenger), Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds)
My Thoughts: Cotillard's the wild card here since Nine has been perceived (unfairly) as a dud. Laurent hasn't really been nominated for a thing this year (Diane Kruger of the same film has been), but her role is certainly showy.
RESULTS: 3/5 - Penelope Cruz in over Marion Cotillard (they were pushing Cotillard for lead, but I thought maybe better minds would've prevailed), and I honestly completly forgot about Maggie Gylenhaal for Crazy Heart.

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up
Alternate: A Serious Man
My Thoughts: I'd love for Avatar to be out of the running here...but I don't think there's a ton of love behind A Serious Man (I hope I'm wrong).
RESULTS: 3/5 - A Serious Man makes the cut as does The Messenger (yeah!). Even though I didn't choose them, those additions make me very happy.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air
Alternate: Crazy Heart, Bright Star
My Thoughts: I feel like this category is pretty darn weak. District 9 and Mr. Fox are definite longshots.
RESULTS: 4/5 - A surprising nomination for the underrated and underseen In the Loop which I thought was fantastic (not as Fantastic as the Fox, but still very good.)


Overall, these are some decent results. A few surprises (Blind Side being the biggie) made it worth waking up early. It's honestly a decent 10-pic line-up -- with the exception of Up and Inglourious Basterds (the former stills falls into my "recommended for some" category and the latter does as well, but will be getting a 2nd look in the near future), I'm pleased with the list.