Oscar Predictions

UPDATE:  Sunday, February 27, 11:50pm


I'm pretty average at prognosticating.  A so-so 17 out of 24.  Foolish me for thinking Melissa Leo who won every single award leading up to tonight would've lost out to Steinfeld (that was just wishful thinking).


The awards show itself (with the exception of the Delaware shoutout from one of the night's most entertaining speeches from Short Film winner Luke Matheny) was dry and needed a punch of humor.  Anne Hathaway was fine and gracious, but Franco didn't want to be there and it was simply annoying to watch his apathetic vibe.  Bring Hathaway back to co-host with someone like Billy Crystal or Hugh Jackman and inject the night with more laughs.


Overall, I can't say I'm disappointed.  The King's Speech is my 2nd favorite pic of the Top Ten, so I can't say I'm upset with the outcome.

Well...I definitely didn't see the 200-plus movies I saw last year by Oscar time, but I saw close to 100.  Unfortunately, I missed out on a few nominated flicks, but I managed to see the major ones.

The season started out with The Social Network being the flick to beat, but the tide has shifted to The King's Speech and it's entirely possible that film could sweep nearly everything.  That said, there's a few races that are genuinely up for grabs (Best Director, Best Supporting Actress...and I think Best Actress is closer than people think it is)...or maybe I'm just hoping for a few surprises from Sunday night's awards.

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Will Win:  The King's Speech
Should Win:  127 Hours
Should Have Been Nominated:  Blue Valentine


Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The Kings Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Will Win:  David Fincher, The Social Network (I'm probably out on a limb on this one as it's probably gonna go to Hooper.)
Should Win:  Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Should Have Been Nominated:  Matt Reeves, Let Me In

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Will Win:  Colin Firth
Should Win:  Colin Firth  (Note: I did not see Biutiful.  Also, James Franco was my pick for nearly the whole season, but I just saw King's Speech and Firth is pretty fantastic.)
Should Have Been Nominated:  Joaquin Phoenix, I'm Still Here and Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine


Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Will Win:  Natalie Portman (I was actually going for the Bening upset until Portman beat Bening tonight at the Independent Spirit Awards...if Bening wins, I'll kick myself for changing at the last minute.)
Should Win: Michelle Williams (Note: I did not see Rabbit Hole even though I really wanted to)
Should Have Been Nominated:  No one...a weak year for actresses across the board for me


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale (although it's really a near toss-up with Geoffrey Rush and I'd be quite pleased if he took the trophy)
Should Have Been Nominated:  I'm pretty happy with all of the above


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Will Win:  Hailee Steinfeld (in an upset over Melissa Leo)
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld (Note: Despite being my number one movie in my Netflix queue for about a month now, I've been unable to see Weaver in Animal Kingdom)
Should Have Been Nominated:  Once again, a weak year for actresses as you'll see when I list my awards soon, so I'm okay with the above


(For the following, the WILL WINs are in BOLD CAPS and the Should Wins are in italics)


Best Original Screenplay:  
Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, THE KING'S SPEECH
Should Have Been Nominated:  Blue Valentine


Best Adapted Screenplay:  
127 Hours, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Should Have Been Nominated:  Let Me In


Best Editing:  
Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, THE SOCIAL NETWORK


Best Cinematography:  Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, TRUE GRIT
Should Have Been Nominated:  Shutter Island


Best Art Direction:  
Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, Inception, THE KING'S SPEECH, True Grit
Should Have Been Nominated:  The Ghost Writer


Best Costume Design: ALICE IN WONDERLAND, I Am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, True Grit


Best Original Score:  127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated:  Tron: Legacy


Best Visual Effects:  Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Hereafter, INCEPTION, Iron Man 2
Should Have Been Nominated:  Scott Pilgrim vs. The World


The remainder are simply predicted winners:


Best Original Song: We Belong Together from Toy Story 3
Best Animated Feature:  Toy Story 3  (Tangled should've been nominated)

Best Sound Mixing:  Inception

Best Sound Editing:  Inception

Best Foreign Film:  In a Better World (Denmark)
Best Documentary Feature:  Inside Job
Best Make-Up:  The Wolfman
Best Live Action Short:  The Crush
Best Animated Short:  The Gruffalo
Best Documentary Short:  Strangers No More