Wednesday, January 14, 2015

2015 Academy Award Predictions

UPDATE IN BOLD -- I didn't do too bad...

I'll be back Thursday morning to see how I fared, but here are some predictions on who will be Oscar nominees come tomorrow morning.  Predictions are listed in the order I feel it will be least likely to happen...

Best Picture
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Imitation Game
4. Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Selma
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Whiplash
8. American Sniper
9. Nightcrawler

I think there will only be nine nominees, but should there be a tenth (which I'm hoping there will be), I'm going with Gone Girl.
UPDATE:  8/8 -- Look at that...eight for eight...Sure, I thought Nightcrawler would get the nomination, but there just wasn't the love for that one with Gyllenhaal missing a nod as well.

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater - Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman
3. Wes Anderson - Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Clint Eastwood - American Sniper
5. Morten Tyldum - Imitation Game
alt. Ava DuVernay - Selma
Longshot (wishful thinking): David Fincher - Gone Girl / Damian Chazelle - Whiplash
UPDATE - 4/5 -- I don't feel the least bit bad for Clint Eastwood not making the list -- although it's surprising given the love for American Sniper overall this morning.  Instead, Bennett Miller makes the cut for Foxcatcher, yet Foxcatcher can't crack into the Best Picture list?  Weird...and the first time that's happened since the Academy expanded its main category past five nominees.

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton - Birdman 
2. Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch - Imitation Game
4. Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
5. David Oyelowo - Selma
alt. Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Longshot (wishful thinking): Ralph Fiennes, Grand Budapest Hotel
UPDATE:  3/5 -- I thought the love for Foxcatcher was waning, but it did well (still very odd it missed out on the big prize).  American Sniper was coming on strong, but I just thought Selma had something going for it (it finished weak with only two nominations) and there was this tremendous buzz surrounding Gyllenhaal.

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore - Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon - Wild
3. Felicity Jones - Theory of Everything
4. Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
5. Jennifer Aniston - Cake
alt. Amy Adams - Big Eyes
UPDATE: 4/5 -- I was never on the Jennifer Aniston bandwagon this season, but many were placing her as a lock. However, Marion Cotillard's nomination comes out of nowhere despite being a critic's favorite.  I'm happy to see Rosamund Pike here as Gone Girl's sole nomination -- a film that deserved MUCH better today.

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
2. Edward Norton - Birdman
3. Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
4. Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
5. Robert Duvall - The Judge
UPDATE:  5/5

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
2. Emma Stone - Birdman
3. Keira Knighley - Imitation Game
4. Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo - Nightcrawler
alt. Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
UPDATE:  4/5 -- The Nightcrawler love didn't span far, so Rene Russo (who was a longshot anyway) didn't make the cut, instead being replaced by Laura Dern whose role in Wild (a review of which is forthcoming) isn't all that impressive.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Gone Girl
2. Theory of Everything
3. Imitation Game
4. Whiplash
5. Wild
UPDATE: Shocked, I tell you, that Gone Girl's screenplay didn't make the cut (look, I had it in the #1 slot).  To me, that was the element of the film that was talked about the most upon its release.  No Wild either, with those two screenplays being replaced with American Sniper and Inherent Vice (!!)

Best Original Screenplay
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Foxcatcher

Best Animated Movie
1. The Lego Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. The Boxtrolls
5. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
UPDATE: Huge shock that The LEGO Movie didn't make the cut (don't get me wrong, I'm pleased).  However, a big surprise that two little known animated flicks -- Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya -- make entries.  Another shock -- I haven't seen a single one of the nominees -- that's got to be a first for me in this category.

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