So, the big day's on Sunday. I've seen everything nominated in the major categories except The Last Station, but, from what I've heard, I'm not missing a whole lot. I definitely feel like I have the right to speak my mind about these categories since I've seen so much this past year.
My thoughts on who should and who will win (based on the nominations, not necessarily my "best" of the year) in some of the major categories are below. Ideally, I wanted to get all my "awards" up before Sunday, but I'm not sure that'll happen. Before the end of next week for sure.
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Up
Up in the Air
Analysis: It's either The Hurt Locker or Avatar and it really is a toss-up to me as to who's gonna take the big prize. I keep seeing Cameron begging to win this thing and it's really turning me off, so I'm choosing the The Hurt Locker for the win.
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: A Serious Man
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Analysis: This is Bigelow's to lose. The fact that she's a woman, perhaps unfairly, plays into her favor since this would be the first time a female would have won this award. All that aside, she crafted one hell of a war movie.
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: Kathyrn Bigelow
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Analysis: As much as I don't want to jump on the Bridges bandwagon (especially for such an average film), he is darn good in Crazy Heart, completely embodying the character and raising the film to a higher level. With the exception of Freeman, this is probably the best category of the whole show. Clooney, Firth, and Renner were great.
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Analysis: I'll never understand the Sandra Bullock sweep for this role. I don't even see it as that far "out of the box" for her. And this is coming from someone who's a big Bullock fan. I enjoy her movies. I enjoyed her in The Blind Side. Oscar-worthy? Not so sure. For the longest time, I was saying that my vote would go to Streep, but in the past two to three weeks, I've shifted to rooting for Gabby Sidibe -- raw, powerful, and touching.
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Analysis: I'll never understand the Sandra Bullock sweep for this role. I don't even see it as that far "out of the box" for her. And this is coming from someone who's a big Bullock fan. I enjoy her movies. I enjoyed her in The Blind Side. Oscar-worthy? Not so sure. For the longest time, I was saying that my vote would go to Streep, but in the past two to three weeks, I've shifted to rooting for Gabby Sidibe -- raw, powerful, and touching.
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Analysis: I stand by the fact that Christoph Waltz is in the wrong category here, but the demotion to Supporting Actor guarantees him the prize in what is probably the weakest field this year. Matt Damon? Stanley Tucci? Ugh.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Analysis: I stand by the fact that Christoph Waltz is in the wrong category here, but the demotion to Supporting Actor guarantees him the prize in what is probably the weakest field this year. Matt Damon? Stanley Tucci? Ugh.
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Woody Harrelson
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Analysis: No need to discuss. Mo'Nique gives perhaps the best performance I saw last year.
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Analysis: No need to discuss. Mo'Nique gives perhaps the best performance I saw last year.
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Should Win: Mo'Nique
Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up
Analysis: It takes guts to do what the Coen Brothers do at times. Their quirky flick won me over, but despite the Best Picture nod it received, there's not a whole lot of widespread love for A Serious Man. This one's a tough category to call, but it's down to The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. If Basterds wins this early on in the night, it could mean the end of The Hurt Locker's Best Picture chances (paving the way for an Avatar win).
Up
Analysis: It takes guts to do what the Coen Brothers do at times. Their quirky flick won me over, but despite the Best Picture nod it received, there's not a whole lot of widespread love for A Serious Man. This one's a tough category to call, but it's down to The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. If Basterds wins this early on in the night, it could mean the end of The Hurt Locker's Best Picture chances (paving the way for an Avatar win).
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds (I realize that choosing IB to win here and THL to win Best Pic are contradictory to what I said above, but so be it.)
Should Win: A Serious Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
Analysis: Honestly, a fairly weak category, but an easy one to predict. This will be Up in the Air's only win of the night.
Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
Analysis: Honestly, a fairly weak category, but an easy one to predict. This will be Up in the Air's only win of the night.
Will Win: Up in the Air
Should Win: Up in the Air
Best Cinematography
Avatar
Best Cinematography
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
Analysis: Full disclosure - haven't seen The White Ribbon. I was quite a fan of Potter's cinematography when it was released, but there's been better stuff since then. All that being said, with my favorites not being in the line-up, I'm picking Avatar.
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar or The Hurt Locker
Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Analysis: Do we even have to discuss this?
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar
Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of the Kells
Up
Analysis: If you don't know where my allegiance lies, you're either new to the blog (so, welcome) or you've been living under a rock.
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of the Kells
Up
Analysis: If you don't know where my allegiance lies, you're either new to the blog (so, welcome) or you've been living under a rock.
Will Win: Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Good job, Jeff!
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