2013 Academy Awards Predictions

Oscar nominations are due Thursday morning and here's a few predictions.  We'll see how I fare come 9am on Thursday.  All categories have the nominees listed from most likely to least likely to be nominated.  I'll be back for "analysis" after the announcement.

Best Picture

1. Argo

2. Lincoln

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Les Miserables

5. Life of Pi

6. Silver Linings Playbook

7. Django Unchained

There could be as few as five or as many as ten nominees.  I'm going to go with seven, with slots 8-10 being taken up by the movies below.

8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Amour
10. Moonrise Kingdom
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS:  9/9 -- Essentially I was right on, however, I only predicted seven nominees as opposed to nine.  I thought this was maybe going to be a difficult race to predict, but as the Best Director nominees will show, I'm thinking this may be Lincoln's all the way now.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"
Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
alt: Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- I should've guessed that The Sessions was fading, but I liked it so darn much that I couldn't keep John Hawkes off my list.   


Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"
Emanuelle Riva - "Amour"
alt: Quvenzhané Wallis - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Longshot: Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- Once again, my alternate makes it in with the overrated performance of Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild instead of Marion Cotillard.  Before I went to bed last night, I thought I was asking for trouble with two foreign language nominees in the same category, but I stuck with it thinking the Academy wouldn't be swayed by "cute" and instead go for substance.  Then again, I'm one of the few "critics" who didn't like Beasts.

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained"
alt: Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"
Long Shots: Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"; Matthew McConaughey - "Magic Mike"
POST NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- Leo was my "no guts/no glory" pick as his only precursor award was a Golden Globe nomination and we all know they love naming the biggest stars they can name.  Leo's costar Christoph Waltz takes the last slot instead.

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"
Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
alt: Amy Adams - "The Master"
Long Shot: Ann Dowd - "Compliance"
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS:  3/5 -- The top three were givens and the bottom two were complete toss-ups.  While I haven't seen The Paperboy, I'm thrilled Maggie Smith didn't make it in as I thought her role was completely one-note.  Amy Adams was always the closest to making it in from the outside, but Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook comes out of nowhere with no precursor nominations anywhere (I think) to take the slot.  There's usually always one of them in the acting categories, but I just didn't think it was going to be her for what isn't a very deep role in the slightest.

Best Director
Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"
Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Ben Affleck - "Argo"
Ang Lee - "Life of Pi"
Michael Haneke - "Amour"
alt: Tom Hooper - "Les Miserables"
Long Shots: David O. Russell - "Silver Linings Playbook"; Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS:  3/5 -- Holy crap.  What a shocking category.  Spielberg was a lock, but I don't think there was a single person out there who didn't think Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck weren't going to get nominated for Zero Dark Thirty and Argo respectively.  I can't speak for Zero Dark Thirty yet, but I think Argo is one of the best directed films of the year, so Affleck's diss here shocking.  What I thought were wild cards in Ang Lee and Michael Haneke are in along with David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook and an out-of-nowhere Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Quite honestly, I'm not quite sure what the director's branch was smoking.  To nominate those two over the likes of Affleck (and presumably Bigelow) is kind of a travesty.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
alt: Perks of Being a Wallflower
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 5/5

Best Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Amour
Long Shots: Looper, Flight
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- I thought there might be a tiny bit of more love for The Master (they did give it three acting nominations), but I'm thrilled that Flight made it into the final cut.

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
The Painting
alt: Rise of the Guardians
POST-NOMINATION THOUGHTS: 4/5 -- The Painting was my "out of left field" prediction for this category and The Pirates Band of Misfits admittedly wasn't anywhere on my radar.  While I didn't love it, kudos for it getting in.  I'm just more than thrilled that Paranorman made the final cut.

OTHER NOTES:

- I'm really happy that Paperman got a nomination for Best Animated Short since it was absolutely fantastic.  I certainly haven't seen all the others (although I have seen its fellow nominee Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'), but this has got to have a good chance of winning.
- Production Design nominees are all incredibly strong it seems.  I admit to not seeing all the nominees yet (and I won't see The Hobbit), but Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, and Lincoln form a great category.
- Similarly, Best Costume Design is quite strong as well -- Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, Lincoln, and the two Snow White movies Mirror Mirror and Snow White and the Huntsman.  
- Nice to see five Best Song nominees again since that category has been heinous over the past few years with last year's two nominee embarrassment.  I'm not sure the nominees are the right ones, but at least here's hoping we'll get to hear Scarlett Johansson and the eventual winner Adele perform at the Oscars.
- I just keep going back to the fact that Ben Affleck was robbed for Best Director.  Just shocking.