Quick Academy Awards Predictions

UPDATED - 2/2/10 @ 9am
Quick run-down of the way I think the Academy's gonna go tomorrow morning in the top categories...Not my picks (that'll come later in the month)...simply prognostications...

Best Picture
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Up
Up in the Air
Alternates: A Serious Man, Star Trek, Fantastic Mr. Fox
My Thoughts: It was a toss-up for me as to whether District 9, (500) Days, or A Serious Man would grab what I'd consider to be the last two spots, but unfortunately there hasn't been any buzz for the wonderful Coen brothers film.
RESULTS: 8/10 - Blind Side and A Serious Man in, (500) Days and Invictus (yeah!) out. A big (undeserved) surprise as The Blind Side is a good film, but not anything more than a really great tv movie. This definitely shows that the Academy likes the flick, though, and is a boost for Bullock in the Bullock-Streep smackdown that's going to occur over the next month.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Alternate: Michael Haneke (The White Ribbon)
My Thoughts: These have been the top five contenders at nearly every awards show this year. If there's any type of shake-up, I think Lee Daniels is out, but I'm not quite sure if anyone's seen The White Ribbon (I know I haven't).
RESULTS: 5/5

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Alternates: Viggo Mortensen (The Road), Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
My Thoughts: It's a shame that one of the best performances of the year -- that of Mr. Stuhlbarg -- has not garnered any respect this awards season.
RESULTS: 5/5

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
My Thoughts: I would be thrilled if Tilda Swinton swooped in for the little seen Julia, but the film has not been on the radar all season despite Swinton being nominated for a few meaningless online rewards.
RESULTS: 5/5

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alternates: Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), Alfred Molina (An Education)
My Thoughts: The most up in the air category. Harrelson and Waltz are the only two set in stone to me. The awards circuit has been all over the place here. Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker is even a possibility here.
RESULTS: 5/5 - I almost took Tucci off and replaced him with Molina, thinking Tucci's vote would be split between Julia & Julia and The Lovely Bones...

Best Supporting Actress
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Alternates: Samantha Morton (The Messenger), Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds)
My Thoughts: Cotillard's the wild card here since Nine has been perceived (unfairly) as a dud. Laurent hasn't really been nominated for a thing this year (Diane Kruger of the same film has been), but her role is certainly showy.
RESULTS: 3/5 - Penelope Cruz in over Marion Cotillard (they were pushing Cotillard for lead, but I thought maybe better minds would've prevailed), and I honestly completly forgot about Maggie Gylenhaal for Crazy Heart.

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up
Alternate: A Serious Man
My Thoughts: I'd love for Avatar to be out of the running here...but I don't think there's a ton of love behind A Serious Man (I hope I'm wrong).
RESULTS: 3/5 - A Serious Man makes the cut as does The Messenger (yeah!). Even though I didn't choose them, those additions make me very happy.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air
Alternate: Crazy Heart, Bright Star
My Thoughts: I feel like this category is pretty darn weak. District 9 and Mr. Fox are definite longshots.
RESULTS: 4/5 - A surprising nomination for the underrated and underseen In the Loop which I thought was fantastic (not as Fantastic as the Fox, but still very good.)


Overall, these are some decent results. A few surprises (Blind Side being the biggie) made it worth waking up early. It's honestly a decent 10-pic line-up -- with the exception of Up and Inglourious Basterds (the former stills falls into my "recommended for some" category and the latter does as well, but will be getting a 2nd look in the near future), I'm pleased with the list.