Nominations are announced for the Academy Awards tomorrow morning. Here's my thoughts as to which way they'll go. (My preferences will come late in February after I've seen more of these flicks.) I have little faith in these predictions because, with a few exceptions, I'm not incredibly passionate about a lot of 2010 flicks. Yes, I actually have quite a lot of decently reviewed movies, but they didn't arouse emotions one way or another in me. Oh, well.
Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Town
Alternates: Blue Valentine, Winter's Bone
My Thoughts: The best surprise tomorrow morning would be a nomination for Blue Valentine, but I don't think it's going to happen. Blue Valentine is not on a single prediction list I've seen, but I can't believe that if an Academy member has seen the film that it wouldn't appear on their ballot -- It's that good. Nonetheless, it's a toss-up for two slots between four films -- Valentine, 127 Hours, The Town, and Winter's Bone. The other flicks are locks.
Post-Nomination Analysis: 9/10 -- I thought the Academy might go populist with The Town, but went indie with the extremely overrated Winter's Bone instead.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Alternates: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
My Thoughts: These are pretty much set, I think, as they've been the same at most awards shows throughout the season. If anything, I feel like Nolan is vulnerable simply because the flick may seem too summer popcorny (even though it certainly isn't).
Post-Nomination Analysis: 4/5 -- Damn...should've gone with my gut and pulled Nolan out and the Coens in...
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Alternates: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
My Thoughts: Duvall is obviously the wild card, but if anyone replaces him, I think it's Bardem.
Post-Nomination Analysis: 4/5 -- I thought they'd go for the old guy in Duvall, but the surge for Bardem seemed possible...
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Alternates: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
My Thoughts: Steinfeld was being campaigned for Best Supporting Actress, but her character is apparently in every scene. If she takes away Michelle Williams' slot, I'm gonna be disappointed.
Post-Nomination Analysis: 5/5 -- At least my favorite flick of the year gets some love here...
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Alternates: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
My Thoughts: A surprisingly tough category to predict after Bale and Rush. Beyond that, the three slots are up for grabs amongst five possibilities.
Post-Nomination Analysis: 4/5 -- I was correct in ditching Andrew Garfield (who deserved a nom) which most sites were predicting, but I plugged in Rockwell instead of my alternate John Hawkes (mainly because my bias towards Winter's Bone was veering me away from that one).
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Alternate: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
My Thoughts: If Steinfeld gets bumped up, Weaver should be in.
Post-Nomination Analysis: 4/5 -- Even though I haven't seen Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom, it makes me happy that Mila Kunis (despite her sexy role in Black Swan) didn't get an undeserved nomination.
My reviews of Oscar-nominated flicks:
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