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So as you know, I stopped writing lengthy reviews on this site this year, keeping the blog as more of a film diary of sorts.  Lo and behold,...

Monday, January 23, 2012

2012 Academy Award Predicitons

Bold Font Updated Oscar Morning -- 9am


Here's a quick run-down of some major Academy Awards categories to be announced tomorrow morning at 8:30am.  Going into this Oscar season, I've actually seen quite a bit more than I usually have seen at this point.  I've still got some possible awards contenders to see -- War Horse, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Albert Nobbs, to name a few -- but I'm not sure any of these will see a huge amount of traction in the nominations tomorrow.  Anyway, here's my predictions in descending order from most probable/locks to less probable

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris

Yes, there could be anywhere from five to ten nominees this year, but I can't help but think in this rather lukewarm year for movies that many of the other flicks just outside the top five -- War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball -- may not have many #1 votes coming their way from Academy members which significantly decreases their chances of a nomination (the voting process is much too confusing for me to really understand though).  If something else gets in the mix, I'd have to think it very well could be something like Drive or Tree of Life that has a small, but loyal and rabid following.  The top four flicks about seem definite with Midnight in Paris a toss-up.  I'm not quite sure how to to appropriately predict the awards, but should there be more than five nominees, I see it coming in this order:  6.  Dragon Tattoo  7. The Tree of Life  8. Moneyball  9. War Horse  10.  Drive
Analysis:  So what do I know.  Like I said, I don't quite understand the preferential ballot treatment.  In the end, there were nine nominees and 8 of my first 9 were nominated with the surprise Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close getting the ninth spot.  So, I'm giving myself 8/9.

Best Director 
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick - Tree of Life
alternate: David Fincher - Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I think the top four are locks with the fifth spot up for grabs.  I guess Spielberg could possibly be in the running, but War Horse has shown up in so few precursor awards that I think its allure has waned.
Analysis:  5/5 -- I went out on a limb with Malick and was apparently rewarded with that guess.

Best Actor
George Clooney - The Descendants
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
alternate: Michael Shannon - Take Shelter

Only the top three are locks.  The remaining two spots will be filled by either DiCaprio, Oldman, Shannon, or Michael Fassbender in Shame, all four of whom have racked up nominations elsewhere this season.
Analysis:  4/5 - Despite garnering a Screen Actors Guild nomination, I didn't see Demian Bichir getting in the mix for the little seen A Better Life.  DiCaprio didn't make the cut for the disappointing J. Edgar. 

Best Actress
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
alternate: Charlize Theron - Young Adult

In a perfect world, Theron would be nominated and win (although I haven't seen Swinton or Close's work yet), but I don't really see her name being called tomorrow morning.  Rooney Mara is also in the running for Dragon Tattoo.  This may be the most locked-up category to be announced tomorrow.
Analysis:  4/5 -- I'm a fan of Tilda Swinton's work, and although I haven't seen We Need to Talk About Kevin yet, I'm looking forward to it.  However, the film is a small release and Rooney Mara took that up-for-grabs fifth spot.

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Ben Kingsley - Hugo
alternate: Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life

I'm calling for a Ben Kingsley surprise nomination tomorrow morning.  If the Academy likes Hugo, I think Kingsley's a great choice despite not having turned up in any precursor awards.  This category is the most interesting tomorrow as I think only Plummer and Branagh are locks.  Patton Oswalt also garnered some buzz for Young Adult as did Nick Nolte for Warrior, but those films didn't fare too well with the public so I'm not sure where they stand with the Academy.
Analysis:  3/5 -- My worst category, but also, like I said, one of the most up-in-the-air ones.  The Academy didn't care for (the overrated) Drive so Albert Brooks got sidelined despite having a lot of buzz earlier in the season.  My Ben Kingsley hope didn't come through either, with Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Nick Nolte for Warrior joining Plummer, Branagh, and Hill.

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Shaileen Woodley - The Descendants
alternate: Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

Top three are locks, but McCarthy and Woodley are vulnerable, but only to McTeer as I don't really see any other actresses being buzzed about for this category this year.
Analysis:  4/5 -- Woodley's buzz for The Descendants had been fading and McTeer had been taking her place in a lot of recent awards, so I probably should've went that route, but figured the Academy might get won over by nominating a "kid."

Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Bridesmaids
A Separation
Young Adult
alternate: 50/50
Anaylsis:  4/5 -- Margin Call makes the cut rather than Young Adult (which I put on there for my own personal benefit).  I did call the surprise foreign nom for A Separation, however.

Adapted Screeplay
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
alternate: The Ides of March
Anaylsis:  3/5 -- My other worst category of the day, although my alternate Ides of March made it in replacing The Help and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy replacing Tattoo.


Overall, I wasn't awful...35/44...still not great...We'll see as the season moves on, but I've got a lack of passion for any of these movies, so it should end up being a rather boring month 'til the Oscars.


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