Oscar Predictions

UPDATE:  Ugh...a very poor 15/24 showing.  Pretty awful.  A solid ceremony that unfortunately tainted my thoughts about Moonlight which I now see as winning simply because of Hollywood's need to push a liberal agenda -- a tweet from Jessica Chastain post-ceremony solidified this notion for me.  Moonlight is a very good movie, but I can't help but think Hollywood feels the need to "message movie" America now into thinking the way they think (and also make up for last years #oscarssowhite fracas.  Once again, no slight on Moonlight which is great (hence my grade below), but it's a win that will feel tainted even though it shouldn't.

A very quick rundown of predictions this year is below.  I think I'm getting older and more cynical because despite actually enjoying all of the films nominated for Best Picture this year, I'm looking forward to this evening's Oscar ceremony the least of any that I can remember.  Let's just say it's tough being a conservative and a lover of movies on nights like this -- I know I'm gonna be sanctimoniously lectured this evening.  [Links in the Best Picture category are to my original reviews.]

Best Picture (in order of my preference)
La La Land -- A-
Moonlight -- A-
Lion -- B
Arrival -- B
Hidden Figures -- B
Hacksaw Ridge -- B
Manchester by the Sea -- B
Fences -- B
Hell or High Water -- B-
Will Win/Should Win: La La Land

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Best Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Denzel Washington - Fences
Very tight race between him and Casey Affleck (Manchester). 
Note:  Did not see Captain Fantastic yet

Best Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Emma Stone - La La Land
Note:  Did not see Elle or Jackie

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win:  Mahershala Ali
Should Win:  Dev Patel
Note:  Did not see Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win:  Viola Davis - Fences

Animated:  Zootopia
Cinematography:  La La Land
Costume Design:  La La Land
Documentary Feature:  OJ: Made in America
Documentary Short Subject:  Joe's Violin
Film Editing:  La La Land
Foreign Language Film:  The Salesman
Makeup and Hairstyling:  Star Trek Beyond
Music - Score: La La Land
Music - Song: City of Stars - La La Land
Production Design:  La La Land
Short Film Animated: Piper
Short Film Live Action: Ennemis Interieurs
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Sound Mixing: La La Land
Visual Effects: Jungle Book
Writing - Adapted: Moonlight
Writing - Original: Manchester by the Sea